Ranking the States on Family Structure
Is the American Dream Fading?
Many people today feel that the "American Dream" is slipping away. Just twelve years ago, more than half of Americans believed in this dream; today, that number has dropped to only 1 in 3. Everyday families worry that their children won't have the same opportunities they did. They see homeownership, steady jobs, and the simple "pursuit of happiness" becoming harder to reach in today’s society.
This loss of hope isn't just a feeling—it’s based on facts. For example, homeownership has declined sharply. In 1980, 67% of adults in their prime working years (ages 25 to 54) owned their own homes. By 2025, that number fell to only 48%.
Homeownership declining for prime-age Americans
Jobs are also a concern. The number of men between ages 25 and 40 who are not in the workforce has more than doubled. Furthermore, economic research shows that "upward mobility"—the ability to earn more than your parents—has been cut almost in half. About 90% of children born in the 1940s grew up to be richer than their parents, but for those born in the 1980s, that number is only 50%.
The "Family Factor"
While these challenges are well-known, there is a missing piece of the puzzle: Family stability. Research shows that people are much more likely to achieve the American Dream when they are part of a strong, stable family.
The data is clear: children raised in stable, two-parent homes are twice as likely to graduate from college and significantly more likely to join the middle class as adults. Marriage also provides a major economic safety net; married men and women are about 80% less likely to live in poverty than their single peers.
In places like Utah, where more children grow up in married families, economic mobility is at its strongest. In fact, the single best predictor of whether a poor child will rise to wealth as an adult is the number of two-parent families in their community. Even homeownership is tied to this: most married Americans are able to buy a home, while it remains out of reach for many single Americans.
Homeownership by Marital Status
Comparing the massive gap between Married and Not Married individuals.
What the Index Tells Us
The **Family Structure Index** was created because the health of the family and the health of the American Dream go hand-in-hand. We believe that states with strong families—meaning more marriage and more children raised by two parents—are the places where the Dream is most alive.
Our 2026 report found both good and bad news. The bad news is that marriage and birth rates have dropped in most states over the last decade. The good news is that the percentage of kids being raised in married families has finally stopped falling and leveled off.
Currently, family structure is strongest in the Rocky Mountain and Great Plains states. We are also seeing marriage trends improve in several states like South Carolina, Florida, and Mississippi. This is largely because families are moving away from states where marriage is declining and toward states where family life is flourishing.
The State of Our Unions
There is good news and bad news to report when it comes to making sense of the State of Our Unions in America. The bad news is that family formation has continued to fall since 2014 across the nation, as measured by ongoing declines in the fertility rate. The good news is that the downward trend in marriage-related trends for adults and children have leveled off in recent years. Currently, 57% of prime-aged adults (25-54) and 63% of teens are living with married parent across the United States.
The question is whether states can make moves to push these marriage and family trends in a better direction. In recent years, some Red states have improved on the Family Structure Index, partly because they have succeeded in appealing to married Americans, including married families, who are leaving Blue states for them. More affordable homes, stronger job growth, less taxes, a greater emphasis on law and order, and a more pro-family culture are the kinds of factors that have made Red states relatively more appealing to married families with children along with young marrieds aiming to start a family. At the same time, states like New Jersey and Maryland have seen their family fortunes improve as they attract more college-educated families with strong economic growth.
The lesson going forward is clear: red and blue states alike should advance public policies that make single-family homes affordable, jobs plentiful, taxes low, and good educational options abundant — all while fostering communities where families can thrive. Given the deep connections between strong families and the American Dream, doing so will put that Dream within closer reach of the men, women, and children across their states.